After Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal, can Gen Z protest extend to India?

Gen Z protest in India; Is it possible?

 Current Sentiments of Young People in India

The sentiments of India's youth in 2025 appear mixed, with a blend of optimism driven by government initiatives and growing frustration over economic and social challenges. On the positive side, the Indian government has emphasized youth empowerment through programs like Skill India, Start-Up India, and the recently launched Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana, which allocates ₹1 lakh crore to provide job incentives, such as ₹15,000 for first-time private sector employees, aiming to benefit over 3 crore young people. Posts on X highlight support for these efforts, with users praising Modi's focus on innovation, entrepreneurship, and skill-building as key to making India a "youth capital." Official narratives portray youth as the "driving force" of a developed India by 2047, with schemes creating over 68 lakh jobs in startups and training 1.42 crore under PM Kaushal Vikas Yojana.However, there's substantial evidence of dissatisfaction. Social media reflects anger over high unemployment (rising to 5.6% in June 2025), inflation, corruption, and crumbling infrastructure. X users, including those identifying as young Indians, express disillusionment with the Modi government, citing unfulfilled promises like job creation and affordable living. One post notes that former Modi supporters in their 30s are "waking up to reality" amid family pressures and economic hardships. Reports indicate 83% of engineering graduates and 50% of B-school grads are jobless, with many resorting to unpaid internships. Broader analyses point to a "crisis" among youth, exacerbated by inequalities and weak institutions, leading some to aim for emigration. While government sources claim unemployment has dropped to 2% in some contexts, independent views suggest it's far worse, fueling resentment.Overall, sentiments lean toward frustration in urban and educated segments, but rural and scheme-benefiting youth show more support. This divide is evident in X discussions, where pro-government posts celebrate empowerment, while critics decry "destroyed generations."

Possibility of Similar Protests Erupting in India

The possibility of youth-led protests toppling the Indian government, akin to those in Sri Lanka (2022 economic crisis), Bangladesh (2024 quota system unrest), Pakistan (2022-2023 political instability), and Nepal (2025 social media ban and corruption), is currently low to medium. India's stronger institutions, larger economy, and democratic buffers (like regular elections and a free press) provide resilience against outright collapse. Unlike Nepal's rapid fall after a social media ban triggered Gen-Z fury, India's protests have historically been contained or channeled through electoral processes. Articles note that while Gen-Z anger simmers in India's neighborhood, India's youth are less likely to erupt en masse due to diverse outlets for expression and government responsiveness via schemes.That said, the risk isn't zero. If unaddressed, pent-up frustrations could spark movements, especially given parallels like youth-led protests against policies on education, unemployment, and corruption in higher education institutions. X posts warn of "smoldering anger" among Indian youth, with some calling for protests against high taxes, job scarcity, and political division. Conspiracy theories on X suggest external "deep state" influences in regional unrest, but experts attribute it to organic discontent. India's stability hinges on economic performance; a downturn could elevate the probability to high, as seen in neighbors where protests escalated from specific triggers to regime change.

Potential Drivers if a Similar Movement Erupts in India

If protests were to erupt, they would likely be driven by a combination of economic, social, and political factors, amplified by youth demographics (India has the world's largest youth population, with two-thirds under 35). Key drivers include:

• Unemployment and Skill Mismatch: High educated unemployment, with limited job opportunities in non-tech sectors and a mismatch between education and market needs. Reports highlight dwindling agriculture/manufacturing jobs and IT hiring freezes as flashpoints. X sentiments echo this, with users frustrated over "no jobs" and "paper leaks."
• Corruption and Governance Issues: Perceived nepotism, election rigging, and institutional capture fuel distrust. Youth view corruption in recruitment and public services as barriers to fair access. In Nepal's case, a social media ban was the tipping point amid broader corruption; similar triggers like policy failures could ignite India.
• Economic Inequality and Inflation: Rising costs, high indirect taxes (e.g., GST, fuel), and unaffordable cities exacerbate inequality. Posts criticize "freebies as vote tactics" while essentials remain out of reach. Analyses link this to broader Asian youth crises in India, China, and Indonesia.
• Political Polarization and Social Issues: Division along caste, religion, and language lines, plus unfulfilled promises (e.g., on infrastructure and safety), breed resentment. X users note fading appeal of achievements like Ram Mandir amid daily hardships. Broader discontent with "divisive politics" could unite youth across divides.
• Digital and Social Media Influence: As in Nepal, bans or restrictions could backfire, mobilizing Gen-Z. Misinformation and radicalization online already heighten vulnerabilities. Youth seek ethical innovation and digital confidence, but feel stifled.

In summary, while India's context differs from its neighbors - offering more stability through growth and reforms - unresolved drivers could lead to unrest. Proactive addressing of these issues via inclusive policies might mitigate risks, channeling youth energy into constructive avenues like entrepreneurship and civic engagement.

(Based on interactions with @Grok in X)