Progressive Zohran Mamdani leads NYC’s 2025 mayoral race against Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa. See polls and predictions.
As New Yorkers head to the polls on November 4, 2025, the New York City mayoral race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched elections in the country. With polling stations open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. ET, early voting turnout already strong, and live updates rolling in, voters are deciding who will lead America’s largest city into the future.
The Main Candidates: Progressive vs. Moderate vs. Conservative
Zohran Mamdani (Democrat) – A state assembly member and democratic socialist, Mamdani secured a surprise victory in the Democratic primary over Andrew Cuomo. His campaign focuses on affordability, housing reform, and social justice, resonating with working-class voters. Endorsed by major progressive groups and high-profile figures, Mamdani aims to make New York City more equitable and livable. Critics, however, warn that his platform may be “too far left” for some voters.
Andrew Cuomo (Independent) – The former New York governor, who resigned in 2021, has reemerged as an independent candidate after losing the Democratic nomination. Cuomo’s campaign emphasizes experience, moderation, and pragmatic governance, appealing to centrist and independent voters. While his comeback has drawn controversy, he’s gained traction in late October polls and even received unexpected praise from conservative voices, including former President Donald Trump.
Curtis Sliwa (Republican) – Founder of the Guardian Angels and a longtime radio host, Sliwa is running a law-and-order campaign, emphasizing public safety, police support, and stricter crime control. While he enjoys strong backing from conservative voters, Sliwa faces an uphill battle in a city that leans heavily Democratic.
Other minor candidates, including Brad Lander and Scott Stringer, failed to make the general election ballot, leaving this trio to dominate the race.
Polls, Early Voting, and Election Day Trends
Early voting has seen over 223,000 ballots cast as of October 27 - higher than the primary but below last year’s general election. Major outlets like ABC7, Al Jazeera, and The New York Post report smooth operations across polling sites, with only minor disruptions in nearby states.
Recent polls show Mamdani leading the race:
| Pollster | Date | Mamdani | Cuomo | Sliwa | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 29 | 43% | 33% | 14% | Mamdani +10 |
| Emerson/The Hill | Oct 30 | ~50% | ~25% | N/A | Mamdani +25 |
| Suffolk | Oct 23–26 | 44% | 34% | 11% | Mamdani +10 |
| Fox News | Oct 10–14 | 52% | 28% | 14% | Mamdani +24 |
Mamdani consistently polls in the mid-40s to low-50s, with Cuomo trailing in the low 30s and Sliwa hovering around the mid-teens. Analysts note that Mamdani performs strongly among young voters, renters, and progressives in Brooklyn and Manhattan, while Cuomo appeals more to older and suburban voters.
Prediction Markets and Expert Forecasts
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently give Mamdani an 89–95% chance of victory, with Cuomo between 5–10% and Sliwa below 1%. Analysts from NPR, PBS, and CNBC agree that Mamdani’s strong ground game and momentum make him the likely winner - barring a late surprise.
Turnout projections estimate about 1.75 million voters, favoring Democrats in high-engagement boroughs. However, a late surge by Cuomo or a dip in youth turnout could slightly tighten the race.
Why This Election Matters
The 2025 NYC mayoral election is more than a local contest - it’s a national political signal. A Mamdani victory would mark a clear progressive shift in urban politics, potentially reshaping the Democratic Party’s future. Conversely, a Cuomo upset could rejuvenate centrist Democrats, while Sliwa’s campaign underscores ongoing conservative struggles in major U.S. cities.
As results roll in tonight, New Yorkers - and the nation - will be watching closely. One thing is certain: the outcome will influence not only City Hall but also the broader direction of American urban policy and progressive politics.
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