Does Nepal have Uranium? What are the implications?
March 11, 2021, saw a dramatic moment in the digital history of Nepal. In Boudha, Kathmandu, following a prolonged sting operation, police arrested four people: Narayan Singh Tamang, Januka Tamang, Prakash Chauhan, and Manoj Neupane. The charges against them included attempting to illegally trade 2.5 kilograms of "radioactive material". The vehicle used in the crime—a simple plastic glue bottle.
This piece of news launched a speculative gold-rush fever that did not take into consideration the laws of physics. Nepal, long considered the most vertically developed country with a pronounced emphasis on hydrology, got introduced to a new reality—that of a nuclear lithology pioneer.
The Rupee Billions Fallacy vs. Dollar 2,500 Value
After the arrests, media publications entered a frenzy that quickly became hysterical. According to some sources, such as Bahrakhari, the uranium cache was estimated at Rs 6 billion. Others, like Nepalkhabar, went higher—estimating the value at Rs 36 billion! In turn, the suspects who attempted to sell the material agreed among themselves that their "black-market" price was Rs 1.5 billion. Chauhan and Neupane expected Rs 20 million each for their role in the transaction.
However, considering the data available on the global uranium prices, the above-mentioned figures become rather unrealistic. Natural uranium—unprocessed and unenriched—is far from being a billionaire's item. At $28.5 per ounce or roughly $1 per gram, the seized 2.9kg of material (as mentioned in the report of Kantipur daily—the initial estimation by police officials had been 2.5 kg)—was worth less than $2,500.
Media publications that mentioned "billions" might have been partially correct in theory—in case of enrichment. 0.1 gram of 98% enriched Uranium-235 can cost as much as $1,500. The confiscated substance in Nepal was Natural Uranium-238. Once again, the gap between expectation and reality highlights a severe deficiency in geological literacy and shows the consequences of "frenzies".
Lo-Manthang: A 10-Kilometer "Yellow" Deposit
As has been proved by the Department of Mines and Geology (DMG) in 2014, there exists a giant uranium deposit in Lo-Manthang Rural Municipality of Upper Mustang.
The exact characteristics of this deposit are impressive:
* Length of deposit: 10 kilometers
* Width of deposit: 3 kilometers
For many, uranium deposits conjure images of glowing green rods of a sci-fi movie plot. Yet, in reality, the deposit looks like a "whitish mud-like substance" integrated into the late Tertiary sediments of a graben. So significant was the discovery from the strategic viewpoint, that, in 2016, the Nepal Army had to be assigned to protect the site.
"The emergence of uranium as a verifiable natural resource within the sovereign territory of Nepal represents a significant paradigm shift regarding the nation's strategic thinking."
More Common Than Gold (And Found in Your Potatoes)
Before moving further, it is important to clarify certain aspects. Uranium deposits are not as mystical and rare as the popular mind makes us think.
Geological characteristics of uranium
* More common than gold and tin.
* Average human ingestion rate: 0.9-1.5 micrograms a day, via air and water intake.
* Present in human body tissue: 1000 Becquerels (Bq) or 1,000 units of radioactivity.
* Found in root plants, such as potatoes.
It was with help of sodium iodide detector and gamma spectroscopy that NAST specialists detected the activity of the material in the bottle: it contained 6,700 Becquerels, derived from 2 daughter nuclei. This level is certainly high—but still far from the instantly lethal dose assumed by the terrified population.
The 20-Year Jar: Alpha Radiation and Its Long Decay
Now to explain why the substance that was kept in the plastic bottle by Januka Tamang's family for the last 20 years did not cause any health-related issues. The composition of the substance was Uranium-238, which radiates Alpha rays.
Alpha particles, in terms of radiation, are considered extremely powerful: they are not capable of going through solid obstacles. Moreover, they cannot pass through layers of clothing or even dead human skin cells. Finally, U-238 possesses an incredible half-life—4.5 billion years. Half of that quantity will need almost a full history of our planet to decompose into Thorium.
The gap between "natural state" yellow mud and weapons grade uranium is enormous. To produce something similar to the "Little Boy" bomb, which required 64 kilograms of 80%-enriched uranium, massive industrial infrastructure is needed (for enriching U-238 up to 85%). Without this, the Mustang deposits are nothing but valuable mud.
The Geopolitical Sandwich: The Importance of Uranium Lithology for Nepal
The current geopolitical situation, in which Nepal exists, makes the situation rather complicated and dangerous for its nuclear ambitions. In terms of the so-called "strategic landscape", Nepal is sandwiched between two countries possessing nuclear weapons—India and China. Therefore, its handling of the lithology becomes a matter of geopolitics and diplomacy.
The deposits discovered in Mustang are rather risky due to the proximity of Korala border point with China. Anyway, the situation was addressed by passing a law, specifically the Radioactive Materials (Use and Regulation) Act of 2020. In clause 55 of this legislation, all radioactive material found in the territory of Nepal became an absolute property of the state.
Conclusion
Nepal now stands before the choice of how to proceed from hydropower domination to nuclear energy use. Experts claim that proper development of mineral sector will contribute at least 15-20% of total GDP. However, Nepal needs a great deal of industry insider know-how and strategic diplomacy in order to be able to manage the "peaceful" usage of this energy resource.
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